Thought I’d take the time to give some shout-outs to those leading the advanced stats at the end of the first round, as well as point out some things advanced stats point out that you may not have picked up on by just watching the games.
Note: I’m not going to explain the advanced stats categories in this post since I wrote about them earlier. If you want to read about them refer to my post about the Hart Trophy.
Despite missing most of the first game and the entire game two, and being relatively quiet when he was in the lineup, James Neal sits atop the advanced stats leaderboard at the end of round one. James leads the team in both the On-Ice Corsi and Relative Corsi. He is also fifth in the league in Relative Corsi. James is fourth on the team in On-Ice Shooting % and has a PDO of 1007. Basically, even though he only had one goal he was an offense-generating machine. If he keeps this up, expect him to be on the score-sheet a lot more in the upcoming series against Ottawa.
Unfortunately, it seems that every time someone is dominating on the Corsi stat-sheet, there is also someone struggling. In the case of round one, it’s Brenden Morrow. Both of Morrow’s Corsi numbers are in the negative twenties and he is last on the team in On-Ice Shooting %. But to be fair, the blame is not solely on Morrow. The third line as a whole did not play up to their potential. Also, Brenden only started 31.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone. It’s kinda hard to generate offense when you’re stuck in your own zone the entire time you’re on the ice. Another point about Morrow, in my previous post about the first round I had discussed the unnecessary penalties he took. There is no doubt that the penalties he took were uncalled for, but his advanced stats line makes it somewhat better. Morrow averaged .7 penalties taken per 60 minutes; too many for my liking. However, Brenden also drew 3 penalties per 60 minutes.
I discussed his advanced stats in a previous post, but Joey V never ceases to amaze me. In round one Vitale had positive Corsi, Relative Corsi, and Corsi QoC numbers. What’s more impressive is his PDO of 1125, the majority of which comes from his On-Ice Save % of 1000. That’s right; not a single was scored while he was on the ice. Keep in mind, though, that Vitale only played in the final two games, one of which was a shutout. Most impressive, however, is the difference between his offensive zone starts and finishes. Vitale only started 28.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, one of the lowest on the team. However, Joey V finished 63.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone, only bested by the 75% posted by linemate Tyler Kennedy. Even though Kennedy finishes a higher percentage of shifts in the offensive zone he also started 45.5% of his shifts there, which is more than Vitale. Joey V’s ability to end 35% more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he started there can be attributed to his hard work and effort he brings to the game.
Good Advanced Stats Points
- 17 of 23 skaters had a PDO greater than 1000 (above average)
- Fourth liners are fulfilling their roles and getting the puck out of their zone
- 15 of 23 players finished more shifts in the offensive zone than they began there
- The fourth line has not allowed a goal while on the ice
- 7 players are drawing more than one penalty per 60 minutes
- Everyone had a positive Corsi QoC
Bad Advanced Stats Points
- Only 6 players have positive On-Ice Corsi numbers
- Only 11 players had positive Relative Corsi numbers
- 11 of 23 players have an on-ice save % of less than 900
- The second line has an on-ice save percentage of less than 850 (insert Geno turnovers here)
- Engelland is averaging 4.6 penalties taken per 60 minutes (tries to erase game two from memory)
- Cooke, Glass, Murray, Malkin, and Neal also average a penalty of more per 60 minutes
How to Fix the Bad Points
First off, many of these problems will correct themselves by the simple fact that the Senators don’t have the speed the Islanders do. Their speed led to turnovers which resulted in shots which resulted in shrinking Corsi numbers. Hopefully the Pens defense will also get back to their game and that will also help the Corsi numbers. Better defense will also help On-Ice Save Percentages and PDO values improve.
Secondly, expect more from Brenden Morrow. I expect Morrow to step up against the Senators. He played well the last time we played them. I think the Islanders speed caused problems for the older Morrow. He matches up better against Ottawa, so look for his numbers to improve.
Thirdly, hopefully the refs won’t call 2 minutes for being Matt Cooke, but it will probably happen anyway. Also, I’m not sure how much we’ll see of Glass and Engelland (although Engelland is supposedly on a line with Murray tomorrow), but without them in the lineup, penalties should decrease.
Lastly, send Lazy and G to anger management classes together. That is all.