Advanced Stats Through Round 2: The Rise of Tyler Kennedy

This is more of an update on the advanced stats standings rather than a blog post, but some of the changes in the stats from round one are interesting.

If you would like to read my post on advanced stats from the first round it can be found here: https://pghhockey.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/round-1-advanced-stats-leaders/

Also, if you would like to read my explanation of advanced stats categories you can read about it in my post about the Hart Trophy here: https://pghhockey.wordpress.com/2013/05/11/advanced-stats-say-crosby-for-hart/

Top 5 in Advanced Stats Categories Through 2 Rounds

Corsi Rel. QoC

  1. Matt Cooke
  2. Brandon Sutter
  3. Brooks Orpik
  4. Tyler Kennedy
  5. Brenden Morrow

Corsi QoC

  1. Matt Cooke
  2. Brandon Sutter
  3. Brenden Morrow
  4. Kris Letang
  5. Pascal Dupuis

Corsi Rel

  1. James Neal
  2. Kris Letang
  3. Evgeni Malkin
  4. Chris Kunitz
  5. Matt Niskanen

Corsi On-Ice

  1. James Neal
  2. Evgeni Malkin
  3. Kris Letang
  4. Chris Kunitz
  5. Matt Niskanen

On-Ice Sh. %

  1. Mark Eaton
  2. James Neal
  3. Evgeni Malkin
  4. Tyler Kennedy
  5. Jarome Iginla

On-Ice Sv. %

  1. Craig Adams
  2. Tyler Kennedy
  3. Jussi Jokinen
  4. Brandon Sutter
  5. Matt Cooke

PDO

  1. Tyler Kennedy
  2. Jussi Jokinen
  3. Mark Eaton
  4. Paul Martin
  5. Brooks Orpik

Pens Taken/60

  1. Tanner Glass
  2. Matt Cooke
  3. James Neal
  4. Jussi Jokinen
  5. Douglas Murray

Pens Drawn/60

  1. Tyler Kennedy
  2. Jussi Jokinen
  3. Matt Cooke
  4. Brenden Morrow
  5. Craig Adams

Off. Zone Shift Start/Finish Differential

  1. Brandon Sutter
  2. Tyler Kennedy
  3. Brooks Orpik
  4. Matt Cooke
  5. Brenden Morrow

At the end of two rounds the Pens’ advanced stats are normal for a team that has been winning games in their fashion. James Neal, who led the team in Corsi On and Corsi Rel. after round one is still in the lead. The last two games of the Ottawa series definitely helped. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the advanced stats leaderboard is Tyler Kennedy. TK leads the team in PDO and penalties drawn per 60 minutes. He also has one of the best On-Ice Shooting percentages on the team. He is tied for first on the team with Craig Adams and Jussi Jokinen for On-Ice Save % with a perfect 1000. They haven’t let in a goal on even strength throughout the entire playoffs. What I think is his most impressive stat, however, is that he is finishing 17.9% more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he starts there. He sure sets the play up well for our top two lines. I’m not the biggest Tyler Kennedy fan. Personally, I feel we are paying him way to much for what he produces. This was true in the regular season. There’s no denying that he greatly underperformed this past season. (and in the few seasons prior to that). However, I will also be the first to give credit where credit is due, and TK has been great in the playoffs. Unfortunately, you can’t afford to keep a guy like TK (a 2 million cap hit) on the roster if he’s not going to do anything during the regular season. He will need to maintain the play he has had in the playoffs if he hopes to keep his spot on the team.

I would also like to bring up a point about Brooks Orpik. Earlier this week I read an article by a Boston blogger about how Orpik is awful. She attempted to use advanced stats to prove her point, and quite honestly, she failed. She relied on Orpik’s negative On Ice Corsi and Relative Corsi numbers. However, it is not unusual for shutdown defensemen such as Orpik to have such numbers. What she failed to mention was that Orpik has the highest Corsi Rel. QoC among Pens defensemen. Corsi Rel. QoC is similar to Corsi Rel., but it takes into consideration the quality of competition. So while Orpik does not generally produce offense (not sure why she was trying to prove a shutdown defenseman wasn’t producing offense), he does when you consider that he is up against the top lines of opponents. Also, she showed a chart that depicted that he was a shutdown defenseman because he only started 45.7% of his draws in the offensive zone. However, she conveniently forgot to mention that he finished 58.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone. This is the third greatest offensive zone start/finish differential on the team. My point is, if you would like to use advanced stats to prove a point make sure they either all support your point, or admit in your article that not all stats prove your point.

Concluding Points on Advanced Stats

  • All skaters except for Douglas Murray have a PDO greater than 1000 (above average)
  • Adams, Kennedy, and Jokinen have a perfect on ice save percentage
  • Brandon Sutter ends 20.7% more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he starts there
  • The second line as been the most offensively productive
  • The third line has been effective against the opposition’s top line
  • Jussi Jokinen takes the same amount of penalties that he draws
  • Penalties for being Matt Cooke exist. CONFIRMED.
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