2013 Season: Advanced Stats Review

I’ve written a few posts on advanced stats throughout the playoffs and they usually concentrated on certain lines. In all my previous posts I’ve broken up the advanced stats into their categories and discussed them one at a time. For example, I’ve talked about which players have the best Corsi numbers or who has the best PDO. Instead of doing the same thing here, I decided to come up with my own stat to evaluate the best overall player when it comes to advanced stats. The spreadsheet I used for my calculations as well as the results can be found here: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_LzoGepDraqMVAtR3pIUDlWaTA/edit?usp=sharing

My equation that I used to combine the stats is: 10*Corsi Rel Qoc + 10*Corsi QoC + Corsi Rel + Corsi + PDO – 10*Pens Taken + 10*Pens Drawn + 5*Zone Differential

I decided on this equation so certain stats would we weighted. For example, I think Corsi QoC numbers are important when evaluating a player. However, QoC numbers are typically small in comparison to regular Corsi numbers. Therefore I multiplied them by 10 in order for them to have an effect on the final value.

The results varied from 907.43 to 1134. At the top of the leader board was Chris Kunitz, followed by Pascal Dupuis and Sidney Crosby. According to the combining of advanced stats our first line was the most effective all-around line, followed by the third line, then the second, and then the fourth.

I then decided to alter my calculation slightly. The only difference is that I unweighted the zone start differential percentage. I did this because it is not always an accurate depiction of a player. It depends heavily on your line. Third and fourth lines guys will benefit from the zone differential being weighted. As you could see from the results of the first equation, the third line was technically better than the second line. However, the second line led in most of the stat categories but because zone differential was weighted it brought their final value down. This is because the second line started such a high percentage of their shifts in the offensive zone that it would be nearly impossible to have a positive differential. On the other hand, the third line started the majority of their shifts in the defensive zone so it was not difficult for them to have positive differentials. Also, the second line will draw better defensive pairings than the third line, which is another contributor to the difference in zone start and finish percentages.

After choosing not the weight the zone differentials the results were somewhat altered. Kunitz, Dupuis, and Crosby were still the top three. After that things start to change. The next in order are Malkin, Bennett, Sutter, and Neal. Neal, Malkin, and Bennett were near the bottom of the order in the first calculation. The second equation led to more realistic results, as it gave the order of the lines as first, second, third, fourth with just a single outlier here and there.

Oh, and since for some reason people have been all of a sudden posting that Toews is better all-around than Crosby I figured I’d use this combination of advanced stats to compare them. After all, it gives a depiction of how good a player is all-around. Crosby came out ahead using both equations and it wasn’t what you’d call close.

Final results:

  1. Good move re-signing Dupuis and Kunitz
  2. No need to re-sign Murray
  3. Buyout Glass anyone?
  4. Letang deserves his $7.25M
  5. Martin is in fact an American hero

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